Can China act as a mediator between Afghanistan and the Taliban?

On the one hand, a high-level delegation from the Taliban's political office in Doha, led by Mullah Baradar, met with the Chinese Foreign Minister to discuss the current situation, the peace process and Afghan-China relations. The recalling US Secretary of State Anthony Blankenship is visiting India.

 Meanwhile, Pakistan and China say they will work together to prevent extremism in Afghanistan. In this whole situation, there is uneasiness in the diplomatic and political circles of India.

 It may be recalled that China and Pakistan have announced "joint measures" against extremist forces in Afghanistan to prevent it from becoming a "terrorist hub".

 Pakistani Foreign Minister Shah Mehmood Qureshi was on a visit to China on Monday, where he met with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

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 Recently, Taliban spokesman Sohail Shaheen said he considered China a friend of Afghanistan. He hoped that talks would be held with China as soon as possible to invest in reconstruction work. The Taliban has also said it will no longer allow Chinese Uighur separatist fighters to enter Afghanistan from Xinjiang.

 The remarks come at a time when various efforts are being made to reconcile the United States, Russia, as well as the Afghan government and the Taliban.

 The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) meeting also discussed the issue of Afghanistan, but did not yield any concrete results.

 It is also noteworthy that US Secretary of State Anthony Blankenship is coming to India just a day after the issue of Afghanistan was raised in a meeting between the Foreign Ministers of Pakistan and China.

 Talks between the US and Indian foreign ministers are also expected to discuss the latest situation in Afghanistan.

 The question arises that if China talks of 'joint ventures' with Pakistan in Afghanistan, then does India have anything to worry about? Can China act as a mediator between Afghanistan and the Taliban?

 Arbitration is usually done by people who are equal friends of both parties to the dispute.

 First, it is important to know whether China really has friendly relations with both the Afghan government and the Taliban.

 China, Pakistan

 , Image source TWITTER

 Chinese government's relations with Afghanistan and the Taliban

 "China has always been in touch with both the Afghan government and the Taliban," said Soren Singh, a professor at the School of International Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University. In 1996, when the Taliban took control of Afghanistan, there was no formal relationship between them. However, China was in contact with the Taliban. One reason is the fear of Uighur Islamic extremism in China's Xinjiang province. The Chinese government also has formal meetings with the Afghan government. The SCO meeting is an example of this. In such a situation, if China mediates, it is not a big deal.

 "It is in Pakistan's interest for China to come together in this role," he said. This is because Pakistan is inclined towards both. Together with the United States, it is fighting the Taliban on the one hand, and Pakistan's friendly relations with the Taliban on the other, which will be helpful at the level at which China will try to mediate.

 "As a mediator, there is another thing that only China can do and other countries cannot do, that is financial aid. China can make a good offer to Afghanistan under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

 In fact, China has already proposed to build an expressway from Kabul to Peshawar under the BRI project. It will boost China's trade and benefit Afghanistan. China was in talks with the Afghan government, but no agreement was reached.

 If the Taliban come to power in Afghanistan in any form in the future, China can help them financially (directly and indirectly) in a better and different way than others. The Taliban have said in the past that they will talk to China about investing in reconstruction as soon as possible.

 In such a situation, playing the role of mediator for China is a win-win deal for both the Afghan government and the Taliban.

 China in the role of 'mediator'

 But the question is, why would China want to play such a role after seeing the situation in the United States?

 Shanti Marriott de Souza Cotelia is a professor at the School of Public Policy. She has worked in Afghanistan and has a PhD in it. In an interview with the BBC, he cited three main reasons.

 First, China has also invested heavily in development in Afghanistan. They want to continue to benefit from this investment, which will require friendly relations with the Taliban. China has an estimated 400 million in investment in Afghanistan.

 Second, the image of Taliban-linked terrorist groups such as Jaish, Lashkar and the Haqqani Network has so far been "anti-Indian." China can use the Taliban strategically against India if necessary.

 Third, China does not want trouble in its Xinjiang province because of the Taliban. He does not want the effects of Afghanistan's instability to be felt on the Chinese border and for terrorism to spread there.

 Professor Shanti D'Souza also believes that after seeing the fate of the United States and Russia, China can mediate for stability in Afghanistan, but it will not want military intervention. It could play a major role in 'back channel talks' with the Taliban and the government. ں۔

 Chinese army

 , Image source GETTY IMAGES

 , Photo caption

 During Chinese army training

 China's concerns

 The Chinese province of Xinjiang shares a border with Afghanistan. Given the situation in Afghanistan, China's main concern is that if the Taliban do take power, the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM), a separatist group active in China's Xinjiang region, could seek refuge and aid. Is.

 The East Turkestan Islamic Movement is a small Islamic separatist group said to be active in China's western Chinese province of Xinjiang and working to establish an independent East Turkestan. Uyghurs are an ethnic minority in China's Xinjiang province.

 Because of this fear, China has always been in contact with the Taliban.

 Both Russia and the United States no longer want to act as mediators. After 20 years, the United States has returned, while Russia does not want military aid and cannot provide financial assistance. Russia's foreign minister has already said so.

 As far as Pakistan is concerned, the Afghan government views it with suspicion, and this is reflected in statements by Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh that Pakistan allegedly supports the Afghan Taliban, which Pakistan denies and condemns. Is.

 Amrullah Saleh had recently claimed in a post on social media that "his (Pakistan's) air force has sent a message that if action is taken against the Taliban who attacked Spain near the Chaman border in Afghanistan." If Boldak is captured, it will be answered by Pakistan.

 However, Pakistan's foreign office denied this, saying that "some Afghan officials are issuing false statements to sour relations between the two countries, even though Pakistan yesterday launched a Taliban attack on Spin Boldak." Forty officers and personnel who escaped from there and reached Pakistan have been brought back to Afghanistan.

 India has never maintained friendly relations with the Taliban. Recently, however, there have been reports of some behind-the-scenes conversations.